Tentag - Hager Wodad Los Angeles

Who is telling the truth about Ethiopia’s internal conflict?

Who is telling the truth about Ethiopia's internal conflict?

By Doreen Nicoll

In a country that prides itself on being united, Ethiopia’s internal conflict makes it difficult for outsiders to decipher exactly who is trying to help the nation and who is in it for their own gain.

The Tigray region of Ethiopia is the source of this conundrum. Over five million Tigrayans are hoping that food aid sitting on its border will be allowed into the region. According to UNICEF, over 100,000 children are facing life threatening malnutrition. These are numbers not seen since 40 years ago, when famine killed one million Ethiopians. But it’s how Tigray reached this point of incredible human suffering that is up for scrutiny and debate.

Ann Fitz-Gerald, director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and a professor in Wilfrid Laurier University’s political science department, argues that there are iniquitous players at work behind the scenes. In a recent phone interview, Fitz-Gerald said she sees the United States in a proxy war with China as America lags well behind its global nemesis in greening its economy. The U.S. needs access to green clean metals like niobium, tantalum, zinc and phosphate that can be found around, and locked within, the Arabian-Nubian Shield composed of Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Eritrea, Yemen, Somalia, and Ethiopia. The U.S. needs partnerships in this region and the Biden administration has, based on statements and decisions which mirror the propaganda of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), chosen to support the TPLF rather than declaring it a terrorist group.

This, despite the Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium listing them as terrorists since 1976 and the Ethiopian parliament declaring this so on May 1, 2021.

The TPLF has held power for 27 years, during which time much of the media was prohibited from entering Ethiopia. At the same time, independent Ethiopian media was silenced. However, the TPLF did eventually allow in journalists and analysts who didn’t question their Marxist theory and gave special attention to the U.S.. Both strategies are now paying off.

Earlier in August, Samantha Power, administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, travelled to Ethiopia and her statements eerily mimicked TPLF propaganda. Her recent trip resulted in a call for the TPLF to withdraw from the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara. Following the TPLF’s incursion into the town of Lalibela, the U.S. government chose not to condemn the invasion and violation of its request and instead expressed concern that no damage be done to Lalibela’s cultural heritage sites.

There’s also Alexander de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who has done extensive research on the Horn of Africa and who has deep links with the TPLF. According to Fitz-Gerald:

“Heads of state have constitutional limits for very good reasons. If we think about the types of influential platforms which former statesmen like Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton stepped into following their 8 year stay in office, one can only think of the influence which a group — the leaders of which remained fairly unchanged — could command following 27 years; particularly with such a well-resourced international propaganda effort supporting them. A privileged social structure emerges from such systems that then also gets transplanted into the international community.”

Fitz-Gerald contends that many Tigrayans are terrified to speak with outsiders for fear of retribution dating back to a network-based intelligence measure put in place in 2005 when one in five people were designated to be the eyes and ears of the TPLF-led EPRDF government in Addis Ababa. The intrusive imposition of this measure comes with grave consequences and, between 2005 and 2018, had a decimating impact on the government’s civil service. This model has been deeply entrenched in Tigray and further emboldened since the TPLF’s departure in 2019 from Abiy’s Prosperity Party.

Despite the TPLF’s criticisms against the Abiy government, and the private wealth commanded by TPLF leaders, the Tigray region has been food insecure since well before the November 2020 conflict began with over 1 million people on food safety nets. The TPLF governance mechanisms outside of the regional capital of Mekelle purposely ensured that local administrators willingly deferred to the centre when substantial issues arise and decisions have to be made.

Abiy Ahmed, the fourth Prime Minister of Ethiopia elected in 2018, has been transforming the government. These changes have prompted senior Tigrayan army officers who remained too long in government to return to Tigray to regroup. Fitz-Gerald says these are the sources of the atrocities happening in Tigray. The people are essentially held hostage and the TPLF demand recruits in return for food aid. This a repeat of the same tactics used in 1984 when food aid was misused and when the same TPLF leaders created a man-made famine and staged cross-border incursions into other regions.

Despite the evidence that has emerged, Canada appears reluctant to rock the U.S. boat right now and is turning a blind eye to TPLF crimes to humanity, including using child soldiers. The U.S. ended 17 years of sanctions on Sudan in 2019. It needs the support of Sudan and Egypt in order to gain access to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which would make Ethiopia Africa’s largest hydro electric power supplier. Egypt and Sudan also have a history with the TPLF and the U.S. appears to be following their lead.

Fitz-Gerald maintains that U.S. policy is destabilizing the region by pitting Sudan against Ethiopia in what comes down to a potential war over water rights. In 1902, the Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty between Great Britain representing the colony of Sudan and Ethiopia included among other things, a clause that Ethiopia was forbidden from constructing any structures across the Blue Nile which would prevent the flow of waters into the Nile unless Sudan granted permission. The Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1929, an agreement between Britain representing the colony of Sudan and Egypt, granted Egypt the constitutional right to veto construction projects along the Nile. A third treaty in 1959 divided the rights to the Nile’s water between Egypt (66 per cent), Sudan (22 per cent) and allotted 12 per cent to evaporation leaving Ethiopia rightless despite contributing more than 85 per cent of the water that flows in the Nile.

The Nile in Ethiopia is a national water structure and is not a U.S./United Nations Security Council issue. In fact, discussions surrounding Ethiopia’s water would fall under the African Union and not with Egypt or the U.S.. If the U.S. is to see peace in the Middle East it needs Egypt and in turn, Egypt is using that leverage to get the US to support their claim that their access to water would be affected by the filling of the Ethiopian dam. According to Fitz-Gerald, that is simply not true. The Ethiopian dam would in fact help reduce flooding in Sudan as well as conserving water through lower evaporation rates which would increase Nile water levels.

Fitz-Gerald sees “the potential for mid to longer term regional economic benefit for the three riparian states is also significant.”

Simultaneously, U.S. support for Egypt and the colonial treaties have caused food insecurity in Sudan leading to uprisings. Sudan must exercise its full rights to water in order to meet its agricultural needs. Without a clear African policy, the U.S. is enabling the TPLF to move forward with its agenda.

The TPLF is a non-State terrorist group supported by the international community that adheres to Mao Zedong’s insurgency doctrine to a tee, including the use of guerilla warfare while simultaneously disseminating misinformation about the government culminating in civil war.

The difference between the 1930’s and today is that the TPLF has keyboard warriors on social media and their propaganda has immediate, far-reaching effects.

In late June, the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire that would last through the growing season to enable farmers to bring in a harvest and to allow much needed aid into the region. TPLF members and supporters refused to agree to the ceasefire and instead killed 40 interim administrators working in Tigray. The U.S., Europe and other countries continue placating the TPLF for a wide variety of reasons including a fear that civil war in Ethiopia will lead to an influx of refugees landing on European shores.

In an August 2, 2021 interview with the BBC, TPLF Commander Tsadkan Gebretensae outlined some of the demands that need to be implemented before the TPLF will agree to a ceasefire. The list included lifting the blockage so humanitarian assistance could reach Tigray; an end to the persecution of Tigrayans in Addis Ababa; release of political prisoners including thousands of Tigrayan officers who served in the Tigrayan armed forces as well as other major political actors in the Tigrayan political space.

With TPLF demands changing and updating as each week goes by, Fitz-Gerald maintains that “as the TPLF has not communicated any strategic objective or desirable end state as an outcome to the conflict, those who support its agenda are doing so at a considerable risk”. After this ceasefire is reached, the TPLF demand inclusive political dialogue with the major political forces in Ethiopia in order to arrive at a transitional arrangement to decide the political future of Ethiopia.

Historically, the TPLF was a predominant player in Ethiopia holding 25 per cent of the decision-making power while representing a population that made up only five per cent of the population. Over 80 per cent of the region are farmers contributing almost 50 per cent of the region’s Gross Domestic Product. 96 per cent of the population is Christian. The TPLF was a dominant force for 30 years until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was elected in 2018. Ahmed’s reforms included releasing political prisoners, restoring internet, and working with Eritrea to end the border war with Ethiopia which culminated in Ahmed earning a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. It’s reported that during the transition of power, the TPLF took $30 billion cash plus gold which virtually bankrupt Ethiopia. This virtual bankruptcy now forms the financial basis for the propaganda campaigns discrediting Ahmed and the Ethiopian government.

Thwarting TPLF’s Strategy

August 12, 2021

By Addissu Admas

By conducting several forays into Ethiopia’s other Killils, the TPLF is not only flexing its military muscle, but is sending a clear message that it is intent at bringing the war to all of Ethiopia; or perhaps, that it is about to march again to Addis Ababa to seize power by force? The TPLF is clearly aware that it can win this war only if it can induce other Killils to follow in its rebellion against the center. Even if this does not seem an immediate possibility for now, if the war drags on, there is a probability that Killil administrations may want to retreat from the center and its agenda. This would not only weaken the central government, but may lead Ethiopia to become a very weak, or indeed a failed state. I have no doubt that the TPLF would want Ethiopia to fail rather than it becoming completely irrelevant. Thus, it will do its utmost to foment rebellion against the center, induce total chaos and un-governability with the sole purpose to rise above the less organized forces and capture again the hegemonic position it once held.

Since the TPLF has apparently been controlling Tigray, and is the sole power ruling over its territory presently, why does it bother to continue provoking Ethiopia’s other Killils? Why can’t it declare “Free Tigray” and establish its own Stalinist state? Why can’t it submit a request to the United Nations to become a bona fide independent state? The answers to all these questions are simple: because it cannot! Apart from the fact that the Tigrean people, who have never seen themselves as being separate from Ethiopia, would have a hard time endorsing such declaration, the TPLF, as I indicated elsewhere, is faced with insurmountable difficulties. First of all, neither the Amhara, Eritrean or Afar people would ever return an inch of their reconquered lands the TPLF annexed during its nearly three decades of rule. Neither the Americans nor the Sudanese, or for that matter the UN would be foolish enough to demand these regions or countries to hand back the lands they have owned for centuries. However, I would be the last person to be surprised if the Americans or Europeans would make it as part of their negotiation strategy. The other reason, besides this, is of course Tigray’s lack of natural resources to become a viable economy.

Since the TPLF has not stated clearly its desire to lead Tigray to become an independent state, why bring the war to Ethiopia, since none of the other Killils, not only have they not expressed their support for its cause, but have declared their intention to rid Ethiopia of this undemocratic, cruel and corrupt party. The few, which have declared their support for it, do it only for some perceived future benefit. What this could be is anyone’s guess. Let me add also, in passing, that they are in for an unpleasant surprise.

The TPLF reasons for wanting to continue the war have been sold to and bought by the West wholeheartedly. However, for us Ethiopians, they remain hallow, disingenuous and even pretentious, because we know what the true reasons are. It stated that PM Abiy illegally postponed the elections beyond his mandate. If indeed it believed this to be true, it would have filed a suit in the House of Representatives or in Ethiopia’s Federal Supreme Court. If in fact it had done so, it would have burnished its image and gained more prestige. On the contrary, it chose to conduct arrogantly its own election with total disregard of PM Abiy and its duly established government, creating confusion and uncertainty in the country. It accused the Prime Minister and his administration of wanting to override the federal arrangement and centralize the government. One may indeed argue that no other government has been more centralizing than the TPLF’s, since it was always intent at expanding its power and dispose of the country’s wealth to benefit itself. PM Abiy’s philosophy of “Medemer”, as most of us understand it, is not a veiled call to destroy our federal arrangement, or much less restore the imperial system, but an invitation to infuse solidarity in our political culture. The West seems to have preferred of course TPLF’s interpretation of the word.

The accusation that the current administration is seeking at any cost the complete demise of the TPLF is intended by this latter to depict itself as a victim than revealing the true intentions of the Prime Minister. The fact is the current administration did not declare the TPLF a terrorist organization until it rose illegally and violently against our federal arrangements by attacking first the northern army. The TPLF would have never been declared a terrorist organization if it had proceeded to plead its case either in the House of the Federation, the House of Peoples Representatives or the Supreme Court of the Federal Supreme Court as the Federal Constitution determines. What the TPLF chose, as its wont, is the philosophy of “might is right”. The true reasons for its rebellion that led to our present uncertainty and instability are far more mundane and obvious: it started a war, in effect, to preempt the prosecution of it most corrupt and murderous members! It perceived this to be the only way of avoiding accountability and prosecution for the most egregious crimes it had committed against the Ethiopian people, including, of course, the Tigrean people. Since it had committed no less crime that the very regime it had replaced, i.e. the Derg, it would have stood trial just like the Derg. The Ethiopian people expected no less. At the same time, it resented deeply “the young upstart” charismatic Prime Minister, for enjoying a popularity it never was able to gain, could never dream or hope for. If it had any sense at all, it should have done some soul searching (or its usual Megemgem) instead of trying to undo the efforts of the only leader Ethiopians have embraced whole-heartedly in several generations. However, I do not exclude, on the other hand, that the TPLF harbors, deep under its thick Stalinist skin, the old imperialist hope that Tigreans deserve, just as the Amaras have done for centuries, to lead Ethiopia. One need not find a document where such an aspiration has been stated clearly, one need only consider the pervasive haughtiness that TPLF cadre reserved not only for the common people of Ethiopia, but also for the other members of the coalition (i.e. the EPRDF). For this read the several memoirs written by their one-time collaborators in the other parties.

As much as it is important to re-iterate the real reasons of this war, what is even more necessary is to investigate the ways by which Ethiopia can come out from her present predicament, if not unscathed, at least less damaged.

Resuming the conflict by fielding a vast force on the war theatre, as it seems the prevailing idea now, is in my opinion as counterproductive as is damaging. Doing so will put us back in the same position we were in the seventies and eighties. However mighty the national military, asymmetrical wars have never favored it. This has been true for Ethiopia as for most other countries in similar circumstances. On the other hand, the PM cannot simply agree to whatever demands the TPLF proposes for the sake of peace. In effect doing so will only plunge Ethiopia into worse crisis. What I believe the PM needs to do is to keep the TPLF walled in its enclave by strengthening the militias. I have little faith in a military that is still massively infiltrated, if not dominated, by the TPLF. It is in the interest of the regional militias affected by the current war to preserve the integrity of their territories. It is, on the other hand, the federal government’s responsibility to provide them with the equipment and training they need to combat their aggressors. This, in fact, must become the modus operandi of the central government until it succeeds in creating a truly national defense force drawn from every ethnic group.

Some may object to this idea by saying that if the militias become too powerful they will be a threat to the central government. True, but it is a calculated risk that the central government cannot afford not to take now if Ethiopia is to survive at all. Besides, the militias affected by the current war have never expressed the desire to rebel against the central government to form a separate and independent state. Nor are they plagued by an irredentist ideology.

Once the TPLF is contained externally, the central government must be amenable to a negotiated settlement. This could be done through the good services of the African Union or some non-partisan intermediary. I do not think that clamoring for more war, especially in a case such ours, had done any good in the past, nor will it in the future. What a continued war does is provide the opportunity to eventual aggrieved parties to pick up arms, rebel against the central government and cause enormous disarray in the country. The priority should not be to “wrest Tigray from the hands of the TPLF”, but to do for now whatever maintains the unity of the rest of Ethiopia. The strategy is to impede the TPLF from expanding the war further into Ethiopia and wreaking havoc everywhere. If the TPLF is walled in Tigray from every possible corner, it will come to its senses and negotiate not only the terms of its surrender, but also its future in Tigray. What indeed will become of Tigray is not a decision of the TPLF but of the people of Tigray.

TPLF’s New Spokesperson

TPLF's New Spokesperson ...Ms Power?

August 9, 2021 ነሐሴ 4 2013

(NPR)

In an interview on Ethiopia’s conflict with the National Public Radio (NPR) Ms Samantha Power said “Well, the militarization of the conflict is getting worse by the day, by the hour in the day.” But which conflict is she talking about? (https://www.npr.org/2021/08/05/1025248684/after-ethiopia-trip-usaid-administrator-samantha-power-shares-view-of-conflict,) The conflict that she is talking about can only be understood to mean the on going attacks by the TPLF outside Tigray in Amhara and Afar regions.

The conflict between the government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the TPLF ended on June 28, 2021 with the unilateral cease fire by PM Abiy and the withdrawal the ENDF from Tigray. The TPLF chief Dr. Debresion in his latest interview tells us “Tigray is chocked as a result of the ENDF’s evacuation out of Tigray into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar regions last June. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEEoYtIXIkM ) His rational for continuing the conflict in the Afar and Amhara regions is because he feels threatened, feels choked.

As we write this, TPLF fighters are in Lalibela and also shelling Woldea and Afar killing hundreds of civilians. No word from Ms Powers about these raids and displacement of poor peasants in these areas.

This conflict outside Tigray region was also the subject of an interview of general Tsadkan Gebre Tensai of the TPLF by the BBC (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEzWbTYkkNE&t=1s). He said that his mission “is not to fight to reclaim land” in Amhara region and his incursions are to open corridors to Sudan through west Amhara region and choke the (road/rail) lines from Djibuti to Addis to force PM Abiy to negotiations that is cooked up by the US (Powers and Feltman).

The only conflicts are outside Tigray and so are the internal displacements of the Afars and Amhara people. The TPLF driven conflicts and the internal displacements that followed was explained to Ms Powers by PM Abiy’s peace officer Ms Moferiat Khamil before Ms Power left Ethiopia. However, not a word about this on the NPR program by Ms Power, the USAID head administrator. Is this an oversight or Afars and Amhara to Ms Power are children of a lesser God?

As if echoing Dr Debresion’s statement , Ms Power said “You have the government (GoE) not seeking to come to the “peace” table for an inclusive dialogue, but rather deploying forces”. This statement is a deliberate misrepresentation because Ms Power knows it is the TPLF that is “not seeking peace but conflict”. She came across as adding fuel to the fire than a peace maker or an honest broker.

There are no ENDF or Eritrean forces in Tigray, and the Amhara militia have been withdrawn and Ms Power described that “rebels” (i.e.TPLF) are pushing out (of Tigray) and trying to take territory that they traditionally have not occupied in Ethiopia”. Ms Power further said “You see the rebels (TPLF) inside Tigray… …want a victory in effectively defeating the Ethiopian government”. That sounds more like a US agenda , through the efforts of Ms Power and Mr. Feltman, who she described “has been working relentlessly behind the scenes to try to bring the parties to the negotiating table”. TPLF’s Dr. Debresion complains about Tigray being choked and general Tsadkan says he has a military strategy that will force the GoE to negotiations.

Hostilities both political and military began by the TPLF directly and indirectly over 3.5 years ago until the TPLF decided to go into a full fledged open war by attacking the ENDF northern command on November 4 last year. The TPLF leaders got decimated and quite a number of them have been arrested and awaiting trial and a warrant is out on the remaining outlaws.

In the interview on reuters, Ms Samantha says “the TPLF forced the Eritrean forces and the militia, ….. out of large swaths of territory” and thinks “that picture is clear” and the GoE and the TPLF “each seem to believe that they can win this militarily” and the people “who are getting caught in the crosshairs, of course, as always, are the civilians”. it is true civilians get trapped in these conflicts. It is the TPLF fighters the are roaming into small rural towns and shoot up and disrupt the poor people lives. There are reports artillery guns from surrounding hills are blasting into towns like Weldia following coordinates given by TPLF cadres who infiltrate and from sleeper cells among the people.

Furthermore, Ms Power says “What are much more obscured are the conditions of desperate civilians inside Tigray because access has been so severely impeded.” Shouldn’t Ms Power ask Mr Debresion or general Tsadkan , supposedly “subject matter experts” to clarify/shade light on what seems “obscure ” because of road access? In fact, road access have never been better and tons of food aid have entered Tigray on hundreds of trucks on a daily basis. To be sure, access impediment was the product of TPLF raid/attacks on these trucks to loot the loads and feed its guerrilla fighters.

Ms. Power spoke on her visit of refugees in the Sudan and heard “…the prevalence of sexual violence as a feature of the mass atrocities being committed, the venom with which the perpetrators are seeking to ensure that Tigrayan women cannot have babies in the future.” We just wonder if these words were from the displaced peasants or the TPLF cadres in their midst informing her… because we heard these same words previously echoed around the world through the TPLF keyboard warriors and their supporters..

She heard also that “ For many of them, it was eight, nine months ago that they came across the border” and “as they relived what had been done to them, it was as if it was the day before.” “I mean, it was so real and just so harrowing,” Power said. “I have in my career had occasion to talk to a lot of survivors of mass atrocity and even unfortunately of sexual violence”. We thank and admire Ms Power for the eloquent words of empathy to the refugees. But we ask Ms Power why do these conditions persist following US/UN policies (e.g. Yugoslavia then, now Tigrai and who next will face the US disastrous policies tomorrow?)

“So it has become a kind of island (Tigray?) where inside there – certainly there is not the violence and the atrocities that were occurring before these forces departed.” According to Ms Power, it was the “departed” and not the TPLF that perpetrated the violence and the atrocities.. really? She continues “But getting to the people inside has become almost impossible for humanitarians.” …. this, after the reported deliveries of hundreds of trucks carrying USAID food supply on a daily basis by UN officials. Oh the horrors of different but coordinated tongues!

Ms Power went to Ethiopia to pressure PM Abiy to open the western front to resuscitate the TPLF in the name of opening a humanitarian corridor. That didn’t materialize. If an offensive takes place by the ENDF in the next coming weeks as most predict, the war on the ground might change qualitatively.

It is hard for Hager Wodad not to deem Ms Power as a partisan and “sympathizer in Chief ” of the TPLF. Ethiopians know the TPLF and its 27 years of terrorist rule and no amount of Ms Power’s sanitization effort of TPLF’s past or present terrorist activities ia acceptable.

US Organized and Led Political War on Ethiopia

US Organized and Led Political War on Ethiopia

August 4,2021

US organized and led political war (and propaganda) on behalf of the TPLF and against Ethiopia persists and the frontal assault is carried out by President Biden’s second official in the person of Ms Samantha Power (Mr. Feltman was the first). Ms Samantha Power is in Addis to scream at PM Abiy to “stand down” according to a PBS reporter Nick Schiffrin (https://www.thirteen.org/programs/pbs-newshour/ethiopia-in-crisis-1628022996/).

It is shameful but not surprising for a western reporter these days to address our PM Abiy in colorful language. Those of us less timid and who have been around the block once or twice have learned how the police talk to blacks and the poor here in the US. And as a “policeman” of the world, I don’t even want to bring up what the previous US president Trump said about Africa.

On the band wagon this time are 1) Ambassador Johnny Carson, (now senior advisor with US “institute of peace”) 2) a UNICEF’s “emergency response team” represented by a Ms Marixie Mercado 3) Adotei Akwei of Amnesty International (Advocay Director Africa/ Advocacy Government Relations). and 4)US based TPLFites

The PBS news sound bites of three individuals (Carson, Akwei and Mercado) are minority faces and Carson and Akewi are blacks and it seems that they are consciously selected to deliver the scripted sound bites we’ve been hearing for awhile.

Carson’s rehearsed attack on PM Abiy’s unilateral cease fire and withdrawal from Tigray to give the region’s peasants to peacefully engage in farming as a “cover for military defeat” of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), the Eritrean forces and the Amhara militia and words like “seriously damaged”, “decimated” used by him are part of the ongoing psych war centrally controlled and globally disseminated by the West (US &EU).

Akewei is another black face invited to the mic feigning concern and saying a system of governance that was created by the TPLF and that kept Ethiopia together is “no longer there” and as such, he says “Ethiopia is cracking on fault lines” and the system he acknowledges created by the TPLF as “autocratic, repressive and very violent” has now broken down.

The system he believes is cracking on fault lines is the TPLF led Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Forces (EPRDF). He never says what followed …Just wonder where he has been during the period of rebellion in Ethiopia (2016-2018) and the three and half years reform movement (2018 until the present) and the transition of the EPRDF to Prosperity Party(PP) excluding the TPLF which opted out from joining the new PP party. His expression’s/ talking points used may have been fed to him from a globally organized, coordinated and controlled center they call ‘fusion cells’?.

We know the US support for the TPLF has been on going for decades and even after the TPLF’s overthrow by the Ethiopian rebellion that brought PM Abiy to power in 2018. The only difference in US approach now is the “in your face” kind of brazenness to a celebrated black African leader of a nation of 115 million people.

The narrative to smear and conduct psychological warfare on the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) is presented and fed to the world by what seems like independent source(s). However, all seem coordinated and are presently in an attack mode with the West’s political line..

Canned words like PM Abiy “fighting with food”, “stopping trucks with food”, putting “children at new risk”, children “not getting therapeutic food” for their survival.,etc….This may be true but the culprit creating this crisis/havoc is the TPLF by warring in all directions and using child soldiers who stop and loot UN trucks in Tigray region. PM Abiy withdrew the ENDF and the Amhara militias from Tigray on June 28, 2021 to neighboring regions in the country.

All this organized and concerted political war is aimed at the elected PP leader and his party with the hope to revive the TPLF terrorists. The US effort is to dust up the remaining three TPLF old guards because the rest were decimated or arrested and in prison awaiting trial.

The TPLF revolted and left the EPRDF coalition and camped out in Mekele for three years attacking PM Abiy’s reforms. Assassination attempts on PM Abiy and killing of his military personnel, and government officials were organized by the TPLF. Direct and indirect attacks were coordinated by the TPLF and its loyal cadres in the federal and regional governments across many regions in the country.

Some external actors also funded to incite big and small conflicts in different regions of Ethiopia. That still continues and the level of internal displacement in several millions is now reported in thousands. Despite this, PM Abiy’s reforms in the military and other state functions show his resolve and have the support of the Ethiopian people.

One regional government that could not get traction was the transitional administration in Mekele that left the city when the unilateral cease fire was declared. Individuals appointed in that transitional administration are hunted and killed by TPLF today.

Nothing has galvanized Ethiopians as the war that is currently waged by the TPLF in the Tigray region against the GoE. The PBS report says “Over 1.7 million Tigrayans have been displaced within the region since November2020. More than 46,00 have sought refuge in neighboring Sudan (source United Nations)”

Today is August 4, 2021 and we just leaned Ms Samantha Power tweeted with the following orders to the Ethiopian government and the TPLF ….

“If aid is to reach people in need then ALL parties must end hostilities.”

there is no military solution for this conflict
The US is calling on TPLF to withdraw its forces from the Amhara and Afar regions

The Amhara regional government to withdraw its forces from western Tigray
Ther Eritrean government to withdraw all its forces immediately and permanently from Ethiopia…

..to be continued

What Alternatives does the TPLF have?

What Alternatives does the TPLF have?

By Addissu Admas

Since it captured Tigray’s capital Mekele, the TPLF has been no doubt weighing its options vis a vis the Ethiopian state. I speculate that among these options the following three could have been entertained: 1) to regain total control over its traditional and annexed territories and proceed to establish a separate and completely independent state. 2) To regain the power it had lost by fighting its way back to the Capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa. 3) Force a negotiated settlement whereby it would arrogate itself a much greater autonomy similar to the one enjoyed by Eritrea from 1950 to 1962. All three will involve in one form or another the question of settling its exact territory since it has been and will remain a sticking point for the future.

It is not unrealistic, though it is highly unlikely because fraught with insurmountable challenges, for the TPLF to seek complete independence from Ethiopia as Eritrea did in 1993. It is indeed an option that the TPLF has considered aloud after its reconquest of Mekele. Given the option between renewed wars with the TDF (Tigrean Defense Force, the armed wing of the TPLF) or a completely separate and independent Tigray, I would venture to say that the majority of Tigreans as well as Ethiopians would choose the latter. The TPLF has convinced so well fellow Tigreans that the destiny of Tigray is so intimately bound to its own survival that they are willing to follow it blindly. Through the ugliness and fog of war, perpetrated by both sides I must add, somehow the very long list of sins committed by the TPLF during its long reign have been forgotten and even forgiven. A sober mind must realize that the destiny of a people is too great to be handed to a party that has proven itself to be, time and again, a most divisive, tribalist, rapacious, incompetent and bellicose group. Tigreans, as an integral part of Ethiopia, must consider if it is worth shedding blood to follow to the gates of Hell this party to earn only the eternal enmity and hostility of the rest of Ethiopia. It is time for our fellow Tigrean compatriots to reject the hegemonic, ethnocratic and irredentist TPLF once and for all.

I need not here list all the insurmountable difficulties that Tigray would face as an independent and separate state. Let me say simply that the fortunes of Tigray are intimately bound to Ethiopia’s, as recent history has amply demonstrated. What Tigray has been able to achieve so far has not been despite Ethiopia but because of Ethiopia! This is an acknowledged fact by all concerned. What narrative can the TPLF counter? In fact, the very fortunes of this party and all those who were associated with it are entirely owed to Ethiopians who have patiently endured their insatiable and shameless plunder of public and private enterprises. Unless an unknown vast undersoil wealth is hiding somewhere in Tigray, I do not believe that Tigray can sustain itself economically. All indications are that she will end up in the list of the poorest countries of the globe as Eritrea continues to be since its independence.

Another sticking point concerning the complete and separate Tigray is that unless the TPLF renounces the very large swathes of land it had annexed from Amhara and Afar during its nearly three decades of rule, the reality of having a peaceful independent separate state will always remain chimerical for Tigray. As the history of humanity has shown with predictable regularity is that if land disputes are not settled once and for all, they will become a source of conflict for generations to come. It is very unlikely that the TPLF, in light of its recent success, will be amenable to a negotiated settlement of its annexed lands. Nevertheless, if it wants a peaceful negotiated separation for Tigray, it will have to hand back the lands it ceased illegally and surreptitiously.

During its decades long ethnocratic rule, besides all the innumerable abuses it had perpetrated against the Ethiopian people – not excluding the Tigrean people – the TPLF used, as stated above, its unchallenged power to annex territories which did not belong to Tigray historically. Thus, it brazenly took large tracts of land from Amhara, Afar and Eritrea. In this latter case, it should be remembered, the annexation became the “causa belli” of the 1998 war of Ethiopia against Eritrea, which was followed by more than two decades of non-negotiated ceasefire without formally ending the war and not accepting the terms of the settlement on the part of Ethiopia. This situation ended only with PM Abiy ending the stalemate by accepting the UN resolutions on the matter. While Eritrea led by Issayas Afewerki put fierce resistance to TPLF’s expansionist politics, the Ethiopian regions of Amhara and Afar submitted without putting up any armed resistance. This naturally changed with TPLF’s rebellion against the central government of Abiy Ahmed, and its brazen attack on populations that traditionally owned the lands it had annexed.

Now that it is controlling again Mekele and much of Tigray’s territory, it realizes, as it did in the late eighties, that its victories could be pyrrhic if Tigray, poor in resources as she has always been, end up at the mercy of Ethiopia at large. Thus the temptation to march again to the capital to force-out the duly elected prime minister and the representatives of the House and induce Ethiopia into a never-ending war in order to reclaim power over contending forces. In either case, Ethiopians must put up tremendous resistance to thwart with all their might the destructive ambitions of the TPLF if they hope to remain one nation. There is no doubt that TPLF’s ambition to regain its lost power over Ethiopia, though much desired and encouraged by the US and its European allies, will only lead to a savage war that will only produce misery and destruction. Ethiopians are more than ever determined not only to resist but to destroy, if need be, a party that has only been the source of ethnic hatred, tribalist to its core and more corrupt than any Ethiopia has known. It is obvious that the TPLF’s intent to regain control over Ethiopia requires not only the support of the West, but also that of the mindless, ill-informed, ill-led and undisciplined hordes of “liberation fronts” pullulating in the far recesses of the various Killils. These unscrupulous, murderous, and confused self-appointed “freedom fighters” will be effectively used by the TPLF in its bid to regain control over Ethiopia, and discarded duly once it had achieved its goals. If they have any sense, they need to be aware of the catastrophic danger that the TPLF is posing not only to Ethiopia, but ultimately to Tigray as well. I say that the TPLF needs to reconsider this option very seriously if it wants to have any future not only in Ethiopia but even in Tigray as well.

Finally, that Tigray return to the fold as just another Killil maybe an unrealistic expectation. Since the TPLF will want to extract the best possible settlement short of returning to power again, what can be offered to Tigray is perhaps greater autonomy, like the one Eritrea enjoyed in the 1950s until the ill-advised “complete annexation” by the Emperor in 1962. This would add an extra layer of independence to that enjoyed already by Tigray as one of the Killils. It must be added, however, that such an alternative may be presented to the other Killils eventually if it proves to foster stability, peace and prosperity to all Ethiopians. It is evident that from here on that seeking a military solution for Tigray will only resurrect and reinvigorate the separatist movements in Ethiopia, which would eventually become unwitting or willing tools of TPLF’ long term agenda. An agenda that will inevitably lead to the disintegration of the Ethiopian state. What needs to be done is to seek negotiated settlement that will not only restore some peace to the country, but also curtail the unhealthy ambitions of the TPLF.