The “Crises” in Tigray

July 4, 2021

The “Crises” in Tigray – Hager Wodad Los Angeles

Rebels capturing  Tigray after the ENDF and Eritrean forces evacuated the region is what’s been reported. It is not certain that the TPLF entering Mekele creates a lull in the fighting in the coming months. 

Parading prisoners of war through Mekele only maybe  the TPLF’s need to lift local morale and an attempt to overcome the horrific humiliation and demise of most of the TPLF leaders in the first three weeks in November 2020. God knows Mekele’s psyche, the TPLF’s army and the noisy Tigrean diaspora supporters need these displays.

The immediate horror projected by foreign powers and PM Abiy’s internal critics not withstanding, we can’t predict with certainty the eventual outcome nor  learn even with the best prediction where the current situation will lead  …but we hope we will have a chance to see developments after the rainy season and decide whether it’s more of a lull or a “turning point in the war”. 

The decision the Ethiopian government to pull out troops and spare Ethiopian lives can’t be bad either.

It is reasonable to think of it as “a strategic move”. This can’t be foreseen, even as some know-it-all experts and  critics attempt to do ..only time will tell. 

PM Abiy’s transitional Administrator appointees in Mekele shouldn’t be targets of sleeper cells of TPLF assassins…(it’s reported 25 or more in Mekele were assassinated and the killing still continues there  and elsewhere in Tigray even as  Mr. Debresion  claims he  has taken charge ).

The withdrawal and pause indeed maybe in the best interest of the PM Abiy’s government and the nation.

The international dogs of war don’t like the sieze fire and are already hyping a “regional war”, “a failed state”..etc,  even after 40 million plus Ethiopians went out to elect their leaders on June 21, 2021 in full view of the world.

Head of African Union’s observer mission praised the elections. Talk about the western media raining on the Ethiopian people parades and sucking the oxygen out of the modest of success in the election process.

Ethiopians made a timely and impressive small step at a free and fair election.

Yesterday’s West accusation and blaming of PM Abiy’s government for cutting off electricity, phone lines , hospital generators…etc… and other charges after all the ENDF and Eritrean forces have pulled out of Tigray is an unfair judgement and shows lack of appreciation for seize fire and peace in Ethiopia.

The big powers have been conjuring up “devastating impact” “horror” “worsening” situation….and order Addis Ababa to ensure security in Tigray…. In the mean time…Al Sissi must be cracking a smile or two these days thinking the second fill the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’ (GERD) will be forgotten. 

ኢትዮጵያውያንን የመበታተኑ ሴራ

ኢትዮጵያውያን የመበታተኑ ሴራ በሰፊው ቀጥሏል።በፕሮፌሰር መረራ ጉዲና የሚመራው የኦሮሞ ፌደራሊስት ኮንግረስ (ኦፈኮ) አና በአቶ ዳውድ ኢብሳ የሚመራው የኦሮሞ ነፃነት ግንባር (ኦነግ) በትብብር የኦሮሚያ መንግስት ማቋቋማቸውን ይፋ አድርገዋል።

ይኼ የፖለቲካ ሂደታቸው በግልፅ የሚያሳየው ከትግራይ ብሔርተኞች ጋር በመናበብ በትግራይ ውስጥ የተፈጠረውን ቀውስ በኦሮሚያ ውስጥ ለመድገም የታቀደ ሴራ ነው። 

አላማው ጠቅላላ ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ቀውስ ለመፍጠር ነው።አንደሚነገረውም ከሆነ በቀውሱም ምክንያት/ሰበብ ፕሮፌሰር መራራ ጉዲና ከአሜሪካኖች ጋር አሾክሹከው የጠነሰሱትን ሴራ ወይም እቅድ ሥራ ላይ ለማዋል ነው ። በዚህም አካሄድ ከሁለቱ አንዳቸው የበላይነት መሪነት ቦታ ለመያዝ ነው።

እስከዛሬ ድረስ ታሪክ የሚያሳየው አቶ ዳዊት ኢብሳ መሪ ካልሆኑ ተቀናቃኛቸውን ከድርጅታቸው ማባረር ወይም ጠንከር ካለ ደግሞ ማጥፋት ነው።

ፕሮፌሰሩም ቢሆን በጣም ተሳስተዋል። ከተማሪዎች ንቅናቄ ጀምሮ እስከዛሬ ድረስ፣ለሰው ልጅ እኩልነት ሲሉ ብዙ ኢትዮጵያውያን የሁሉንም ኢትዮጵያውያኖች መብትና እኩልነት ማለታቸው ይመስላቸው ነበር። በተለይ የኦሮሞ መብት ማለታቸው ግልፅ አልነበረም።

ዛሬም የተካኑት ቀረርቶ፡ ማለት ብሔራዊ መግባባት ፤ብሔራዊ ሸንጎ፤ ብሔራዊ ዕርቅ፤ ወዘተርፈ… ማለታቸው ደግሞ በኪሳቸው የሸጎጧትን ቅልጥ ያለ ብሕርተኝነት በአደባባይ አውጠተው የኦሮሞ ንጉስ አርጉኝ እያሉን ነው። የአቶ ዳዊትን አቛም እንደሆነ ሕዝብ ያውቀዋል። የሰሞኑን የመርጫ ሂደት ደወል ያበሰረውን አዲስ ዘመንና የሕዝቡን ስሜት ሁለቱም ፖለቲከኞች የተገነዘቡት አይመስሉም ። 

ይኼ ድርጊታቸው የኦሮሞን ሕዝብ ይጎዳል፤ የኢትዮጵያን ሕዝብ ይጎዳል ። ከወያኔ ጋር ሆናችሁ ኢትዮጵያውያን ለማፍረስ ከሆነ አይሳካላችሁም!

ኢትዮጵያውያ ለዘለዓለም ትኑር!!

What next? Will the Tigrean peasants farm peacefully with TPLF in their midst?

The approximately 250k uniformed TPLF army and militia that trained and displayed its weaponry in the streets and stadiums of Mekele last year discarded its uniform, buried its weapons , and blended with the Tigrean people with the advance of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces(ENDF), the Amhara militia and the Eritrean forces that captured Mekele in three weeks after the conflict began on November 4, 2020. 

When the TPLF heads run to the woods, they were pursued by the ENDF, some arrested others killed. A significant number of the blended militia joined the exodus with the Tigrean peasants who took refuge across the border in Sudan. The TPLF army and militias stayed among the peasantry and in several towns, including Mekele. 

The ENDF generals talked about heinous crimes committed by the TPLF soldiers who discarded their uniforms and blamed the acts on the ENDF. 

After the conventional military conflict was over, chasing the remaining terrorists continued but the human and material cost became untenable in several towns and rural areas. 

To avoid more killings of people on both sides from this conflict, the government of PM Abiy decided for a unilateral cease fire.

What next? For the Tigrean peasants, it’s the season to farm peacefully? Will the hidden TPLF militia in their midst allow them?…or has mobilization for continued conflict began.. The war drums by their survivor chief cadre escalates and western media dutifully echo them. What develops remains to be seen. 

Will the aid promised by international organizations show up as promised or will they continue to remind us of our inadequacy?

(በቁስል አንጨት አንድምንልው)… That also remains to be seen too.

The West and International Organizations must Aid Tigray’s Affected Areas now…No Excuses

Now that there is unilateral cease fire by the government of Ethiopia and withdrawal of the ENDF and Eritrean forces in Tigray , there should be no more excuses for UNICEF, US and EU to harp about access in the affected areas . 

They need to move on assisting in reversing the malnutritions and impending famine they constantly tell us about instead of recounting their projections on an impending disaster. They should help facilitate assistance in resources to quell the people’s need for food and water in the region. 

People’s need should not be used for misinformation and propaganda like the International Crisis Group (ICG) does . Yes there is urgency in assistance for people suffering in the region. The condition created (i.e unilateral cease fire) should help aid groups unfettered access and move things along. 

Feigning ignorance of the situation, dwelling on problems of access is the last thing the people in the region need now. Yes, let’s talk less and do more in addressing this urgent need of assisting with food and water. International aid organizations tell us there are an estimated one million people affected by the regional conflict. 

If the West and International organizations true intentions are reversing the humanitarian disaster, the conditions are already met. But if their hidden agenda is opening a corridor through the Sudan and trying to revive the TPLF, they will face strong resistance from the government and the Amhara region. PM Abiy is well aware of this and mentioned it in his recent interview with Fana Broadcasting.

We just learned a bridge over Tekeze river in Tigray has been destroyed. Hager Wodad condemns in the strongest terms whoever did this outrages act. We regret to learn aid will be hampered but there are other roads and air travel access in the area. If there is will, there is way.

PM Abiy Address Ethiopians on Tigray

June 30, 2021

Yesterday PM Abiy addressed the Ethiopian media and groups on why the ENDF forces moved out of Mekele. The main reasons are the ENDF forces were being attacked by the very people they went to protect.

This could only lead to a drawn out and senseless war and breath life into TPLF’s propaganda war and the negative international media coverage of the situation and Ethiopia’s progress.

Hager wodad supports the unilateral cease fire.

The criminal elements (Junta) have been have been crushed, arrested and the remaining ones are on the run. The law and order campaign began on November 4, 2020 and was over in three weeks.

Chasing the low level cadres of TPLF and their forces who discarded their uniform and blended with the people is costly in treasure and blood the nation can’t afford. So far, the eight months war cost $100 billion Ethiopian Birr .

It will also help the Tigrean peasantry to get engaged fully in the farming season at hand.

The seize fire will also give the Tigran people a breather on figuring out on how to govern themselves.

The very people the army went to defend have been caught between a rock and a hard place and PM Abiy has pulled back to have the Tigray people decide their fate while keeping an eye on the remaining junta elements