Since PM Abiy announced and joined to lead the war on November 23 against the TPLF, the war is turning in favor of Ethiopia and no doubt against the TPLF . The TPLF’s loss in the last couple of weeks has been the biggest since the ENDF push back began.
The TPLF war began shortly after June 28 when a unilateral cease-fire by the Ethiopian government was declared . Rather than do the same, the TPLF refused to take the opportunity to reciprocate by declaring a cease fire and giving peace a chance. It continued its onslaught with a promise to dismember the nation.
The TPLF’s foray into the Amhara and Afar regions and the pillage and mayhem that it created capturing several cities and towns in these regions seriously hurt the nation in blood and treasure.
The internal displacement of millions in the conflict regions not withstanding, the TPLF declared it was poised to March and enter Addis Ababa and dislodge PM Abiy’s elected government. Today, that seems unlikely and the TPLF has began what it calls a “strategic” retreat from its march towards Addis, the Amhara and Afar fronts.
The latest developments in the war began with the ENDF , special forces and militia freeing the Chiffra and Bati fronts in the east (Afar) sealing the TPLF’s attempts to capture and choke the Djibouti rail and road line.
Also, the TPLF’s aspiration to break and open a corridor into Sudan has failed and most likely will not happen anytime soon.
PM Abiy‘s military leadership on the war front has galvanized the nation and increased the moral of Ethiopa’s forces and enabled reversing TPLF’s advance and hastening its retreat. Most of the towns and cities held by the TPLF are now under ENDF forces and in some areas local administrations have been reinstated.
The TPLF forces are now Mekele bound and the war the TPLF started after June 28, 2021 is slowly losing steam strangling its ambition and dangerous gambit.
PM Abiy Indicated that the war is practically over and his description of what is left now sounded more like moping operations in these regions.
In a recent appeal to Tigrean mothers, PM Abiy implored them to question the TPLF on the whereabouts of their children and why they are dying in vain in a needless confrontation led by the TPLF leaders.
Furthermore, Ethiopians are now asking what’s next? If the current pace of the war leads to an end and the terrorist chieftains in the TPLF surrender and give themselves up to the Ethiopian law-enforcement authorities peacefully , then the nation will be spared from a long drawn out and unnecessary bloodshed in Tigray.
Some considerations of what should come next in Tigray are :
1) instituting a sizable command post to temporarily govern the Tigray Killil until it is secure and the safety of the Tigrean people is assured . The command post should direct the disarming of all the war combatants, criminals and suspects.
2) Similar search and seizures of arms and munitions in Mekele and suspected areas should be conducted…(like the one conducted in Addis Ababa) to insure security
3) a respite period should be declared to enhance a moratorium on all hostilities allowing the Tigray people to decide on who their new regional leaders should be.
4) The Federal government should, through the National Election Board, conduct a regional election in Tigray like it has done in all the other Killils in Ethiopia in due time.
5) The Federal government should provide assistance to the Tigrean people in their move toward a peaceful governance and ensure safety, stability and development of the Killil.