Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, faces significant challenges in securing reliable access to the sea. This issue is not merely a logistical concern but a matter of national economic security and regional stability. With over 120 million people, Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Africa and one of the fastest-growing economies on the continent. However, its lack of direct sea access has created economic vulnerabilities and logistical bottlenecks. This essay explores the current challenges Ethiopia faces in securing sea access, the potential pathways to overcome these challenges, and recommendations for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to achieve this critical goal.

Current Challenges in Securing Sea Access

Ethiopia’s dependence on Djibouti’s port for nearly 95% of its trade has created significant economic and logistical challenges. The high costs associated with using Djibouti’s facilities, coupled with congestion and inefficiencies, have strained Ethiopia’s economy. For instance, port fees, transportation costs, and delays in cargo handling have increased the prices of imported goods and reduced the competitiveness of Ethiopian exports. Moreover, Ethiopia’s reliance on a single port makes it vulnerable to disruptions. Any political instability, natural disaster, or conflict in Djibouti could severely impact Ethiopia’s trade and economy. This over-reliance underscores the urgent need for Ethiopia to diversify its sea access options.

Regional Tensions and Sovereignty Concerns

Ethiopia’s efforts to secure sea access have raised concerns among neighboring countries. Eritrea, Somalia, and Somaliland are wary of ceding control over their ports or territories, fearing a loss of sovereignty or economic leverage. For example, Ethiopia’s 2024 memorandum of understanding with Somaliland to lease a naval base and gain port access in Berbera was met with strong opposition from Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory. These tensions highlight the delicate balance Ethiopia must strike between pursuing its economic interests and respecting the sovereignty of its neighbors. Any misstep could exacerbate regional conflicts and undermine Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing.

Political Instability in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa is one of the most politically unstable regions in the world, further complicating Ethiopia’s quest for sea access. Conflicts in Somalia, tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and internal disputes within Ethiopia itself—such as the Tigray crisis—create an environment of uncertainty. Regional instability deters foreign investment in infrastructure projects that could facilitate Ethiopia’s access to the sea. For instance, potential investors may hesitate to fund port developments or transportation networks in a region prone to conflict. Addressing these internal and regional challenges is essential for Ethiopia to create a stable environment conducive to securing sea access.

Geopolitical Competition

The Horn of Africa has become a focal point of geopolitical competition, with countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and China investing heavily in regional ports. These global powers often have conflicting interests, making it difficult for Ethiopia to navigate the complex web of alliances and rivalries. For example, China’s investments in Djibouti’s ports and Turkey’s involvement in Somalia’s infrastructure projects create competing influences that Ethiopia must carefully manage. Balancing these geopolitical dynamics while pursuing its own interests is a significant challenge for Ethiopia’s leadership.

Potential Pathways for Sea Access

Despite these challenges, Ethiopia has several potential pathways to secure sea access. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has pursued a combination of diplomatic negotiations, infrastructure investments, and regional partnerships to achieve this goal. Below are some key strategies Ethiopia could explore:

Strengthening Relations with Eritrea

Eritrea’s ports of Assab and Massawa are the most logical options for Ethiopia, given their proximity and historical ties. The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea marked a significant step toward normalizing relations, but deeper economic integration is needed to facilitate port access. Ethiopia could offer investments in Eritrea’s infrastructure or share revenue from port usage to incentivize cooperation. Confidence-building measures, such as cultural exchanges and trade partnerships, could also help mend historical tensions and build trust between the two nations.

Expanding Partnerships with Somaliland

Somaliland, though not internationally recognized, has functioning ports in Berbera and Bossaso. Ethiopia’s 2024 agreement with Somaliland to lease a naval base and gain port access in Berbera is a step in the right direction. However, this move has sparked tensions with Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory. To avoid regional backlash, Ethiopia must address Somalia’s concerns and work with the African Union and the international community to mediate between the two parties. A tripartite agreement that respects Somalia’s sovereignty while granting Ethiopia access to Berbera could be a win-win solution.

Investing in Regional Infrastructure

Ethiopia could invest in infrastructure projects that connect its landlocked economy to ports in neighboring countries. For example, the development of railways and highways linking Ethiopia to ports in Kenya (Mombasa) or Sudan (Port Sudan) could provide alternative trade routes. These projects could be funded through partnerships with international organizations or foreign investors. Diversifying trade routes would reduce Ethiopia’s dependency on any single port and enhance its economic resilience.

Leveraging International Support

Ethiopia could seek support from global powers like the United States, the European Union, and China, which have strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. By positioning itself as a stabilizing force in the region, Ethiopia could attract funding and diplomatic backing for its sea access initiatives. International support could also help mediate regional disputes and facilitate infrastructure development.

Recommendations for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

To achieve Ethiopia’s goal of securing sea access, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must adopt a multifaceted approach that balances diplomacy, economic incentives, and regional stability. Below are specific recommendations:

1. Prioritize Diplomatic Engagement with Eritrea : Eritrea remains the most viable option for sea access due to its proximity and existing infrastructure. Abiy should prioritize building trust with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, offering economic incentives such as joint infrastructure projects or revenue-sharing agreements.

2. Mediate Between Somaliland and Somalia: Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland has potential but risks alienating Somalia. Abiy should work with the African Union and the international community to mediate between Somaliland and Somalia, ensuring that Ethiopia’s port access does not exacerbate regional conflicts.

3. Diversify Trade Routes: Ethiopia should not rely solely on one port or country for its sea access. Investing in infrastructure projects that connect Ethiopia to multiple ports, such as Mombasa (Kenya) and Port Sudan (Sudan), would reduce dependency on any single route and enhance economic resilience.

4.  Leverage International Partnerships: Abiy should seek support from global powers and international organizations to fund infrastructure projects and mediate regional disputes. By positioning Ethiopia as a key player in regional stability, Abiy could attract investment and diplomatic backing for his sea access initiatives.

5.  Promote Regional Integration: Ethiopia should champion regional integration initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), to foster economic cooperation and reduce tensions. By promoting shared economic interests, Ethiopia could build stronger relationships with its neighbors. 

6. Address Internal Challenges: Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, such as the Tigray crisis, and armed groups in different regions of the country undermine its ability to negotiate from a position of strength. Abiy must prioritize national reconciliation and economic development to stabilize the country and enhance its regional influence.

Conclusion

Ethiopia’s quest for sea access is a complex but achievable goal that requires careful diplomacy, economic incentives, and regional cooperation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must navigate the challenges of over-reliance on Djibouti, regional tensions, and geopolitical competition while pursuing multiple pathways to secure port access. By prioritizing diplomatic engagement with Eritrea, mediating between Somaliland and Somalia, diversifying trade routes, and leveraging international support, Abiy can position Ethiopia as a regional leader and secure the sea access it needs for economic growth and national security. The success of this endeavor will not only benefit Ethiopia but also contribute to the stability and prosperity of the Horn of Africa.