Author: Tentag

Galloping a Dying Horse: the US and TPLF Gliding through a Blind Alley!

Galloping a Dying Horse: the US and TPLF Gliding through a Blind Alley!

Aregawi Berhe (PhD)

The unholy alliance between the US Administration and TPLF was made public in London in 1991 after long clandestine dealings of the two parties to subject Ethiopia to secret bidding. Thereafter, the former together with its junior partner, the UK Blaire party, devised an exit strategy for the dictator Mengistu H.M. and a gateway for the ill-humored dictator, the late Legesse (Meles) Zenawi.

For the Ethiopian people, it was only a change of a brand of dictators – a transition from one unruly dictator to vicious one. Since then, Ethiopia had been a play-ground for the Western hypocrites, save prudent diplomats such as Senator Jim Inhofe and a laboratory of ethnic politics spearheaded by TPLF leaders. For almost three decades, the two High Contracting Parties (the US Administrations and TPLF) never cared about the incessant repression and unbridled abuse of public power that subjected Ethiopians to miserable circumstances. Instead, their treacherous relations persisted in a manner that was devoid of standard diplomacy commensurate with incredible norms of international relations and codes of conduct.

Diplomacy as a field of inter-state relations is a normative exercise of interaction between two nations of which the smooth conduct of relations was set by the Vienna Congress in 1815, and as Satow adds “it is the application of intelligence and tact …” in this regard. US-TPLF close rapport, however, has been marked as clearly inimical far from customary norms in the conduct of smooth and standard inter-state relations. It was mainly underpinned by the quest for promoting self-serving corporate and personal interests that complicated the longstanding diplomatic relations between the two countries. As a consequence of their unwarranted behaviors and attendant practices, the Ethiopian people were forced to bear the brunt of the heat due to widespread conflicts, rampant corruption, recurring famine episodes, unbridled outmigration, and abject poverty and degradation. As if this was not enough, this unholy alliance culminated in triggering the recent conflict that is currently devouring the lives of Ethiopian youth mainly from Tigray.

Why the war in the first place?

This question must be answered in no ambiguous terms by calling “a spade a spade” despite the dispositions of various interest groups that strive to take the country into horrible mess. To begin with, there was no need to go to war had it not been for the evil intentions TPLF leaders for Ethiopia had more than its fair share of incidences of war during its long history of existence. For 27 years, the TPLF kleptocratic clique took the helm of power in Ethiopia only to enrich its inner circle by establishing a patronage system for embarking on unbridled corruption that drove millions to joblessness and destitution. Despite the rhetoric of “miraculous growth”, the realities on the ground in Ethiopia depict that very little, if any, had trickled down to the ordinary people. All that happening under the watchful eyes of the American and British friends of the TPLF leaders dubbed as diplomats. Hence, Ethiopians were left with no other option but resort to the politics of protest prompting the TPLF-led regime to impose rounds of state of emergency. As a result, a series of unrelenting uprisings broke the iron grip of the TPLF leading to the advent of a new pro-reform leadership in April 2018 to which the TPLF leadership consented at the meeting of  the EPRDF Council.

Subsequently, the TPLF leaders lost no time to show their rejection of the change that was enforced by the storm of protests of the people though formalized by their representatives’ own vote during the said meeting. Hastily, they withdrew from Addis Ababa and regrouped at Mekelle, the capital of Tigray to start preparations for war against the federal government on which they had presided until their removal. The question then is should one with sane mind opt for war to dismantle an established state of one’s own making? – While all options of power sharing through negotiation were tabled by the incumbent government.

Tigray, a region so far neglected by the extravagant TPLF clique, suddenly became an arena for war preparations leading to digging trenches along the borders of neighboring regions like  Amhara and Afar, recruited minors as old as ten and eleven years while their counterparts in the rest of Ethiopia are going to school. Still worse, they secretly organized a new army composed of ex-active and retired members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) who were earlier recruited by the Front. The forging of an army within an army that has a multi-ethnic composition was thus designed to promote an all-out evil purpose from the outset. The unprovoked cowardly and treacherous assault upon the ENDF in Tigray on the night of 4 November 2021 bragging that the act was a preemptive thunderbolt strike by cold-bloodedly committing treason against their former comrades-in-arms featuring as an ethicized crime that is tantamount to genocide punishable by law. This was how the conflict started, simple and plain.

There are indications that the US Administration was aware of such heinous crimes since the criminal group had close contact with its former and current diplomats who were accomplices of the TPLF clique. To this day, TPLF and its supporters serving at various levels in the Administration maintained warm relationship defying internationally accepted diplomatic norms despite the existence of a new democratically elected peace-loving leadership in whose premier was awarded  the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Under such obvious circumstances, it is disconcerting to see that the US and its allies are bent on an archaic supposition: “Better a familiar devil than an unknown angel”. This is nothing but, diplomacy and personal ties are blended intrinsically at best! Here is one latest illustration of US bias towards the elected Ethiopian government: In his briefing to the world press on 23 Nov. 2021, Jeffrey Feltman, U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa said,

“The TDF and TPLF leaders that we have engaged tell us that their top priority is to break the de facto humanitarian siege that the Government of Ethiopia has imposed on Tigray since July. We shared that objective as well”. And adds “The government must remove the shackles that are hindering humanitarian relief …” (emphasis added).

Before sharing the fabrications of his TPLF friends, Mr. J. Feltman, should have asked himself what it means when the TPLF gang confiscated 446 trucks full of relief supplies dispatched to Tigray by the federal government – trucks which could have brought more supplies to the needy people, and isn’t this hindering humanitarian relief? Isn’t this a de facto humanitarian siege (using his words) imposed by TPLF? Is it plausible for a government to send trucks of relief to a region it enforced “humanitarian siege”?  So, who should remove the shackles that Mr. Feltman has alluded to? Is it the TPLF leaders who commandeered relief trucks or the government that has nothing to do with the disruption? What a sham diplomatic overture?

It is not only the so-called diplomats who are surfing with the dead-ducks. The pretentious Western media and its well-paid agents who recast their profession as human rights activism to journalism or those involved in  academia-cum cadre-ism are also tuned to the same drum-major. The likes of Alex de Waal, Kjetil Tronvoll, William Davidson, and Martin Plaut, to mention but a few, are intentionally confusing the international community by misrepresenting the realities on the ground. It is not for the first time that they turn around when strident calamities befall Ethiopia. They were accomplices of the TPLF/EPRDF government in many of its vile undertakings like the massacre of 2004 of Agnuak civilians in Gambella, the shooting of 193 peaceful demonstrators in Addis Ababa, and the cover up of TPLF’s diversion of the 95% relief aid to their military projects and the ensuing of famines in Tigray in the 1980s, among others. Recently, following the attack at the EDF posts in Tigray including Mekelle, these ballpoint mercenaries preferred not even to mention either the abhorrent stab on the back or the confiscation of 446 vehicles loaded with food aid sent by the Federal government to the needy people in Tigray despite knowing that the vehicles are deployed to boost the military adventures of the TPLF while the ordinary people of Tigray continue to suffer from hunger.

Recently, another TPLF gimmick transpired at the seat of the US administration. The TPLF henchman Berhane Gebre Kaisi, spokesman for the TPLF gang together with his friend Prof. Ephraim Isaac hosted a zoom-meeting that included some ten elders who allowed themselves to be confused by false narrations of current events in Ethiopia. B.G. Kaisi based his fiction on two theatrical issues: “encirclement” of Tigray and “genocide”. He has created in his mind two factors that do not exist in reality, but perhaps created from his fear that forced him to flee from Ethiopia shamefacedly. Who and why should anybody encircle the poor people of Tigray? If TPLF leaders fear encirclement as a consequence of their dreadful deeds, does it mean the people of Tigray are encircled? When and where has genocide taken place? If there is anything that qualifies as genocide, it was the recent massacre in Mykadra perpetrated by TPLF tags known as Samri that is still on the move to repeat the same. It is to cover up the misdeeds that the TPLF gang has perpetrated that caused the experienced mishaps forcing the group to concurrently to play victim. In this, its collaborators with semblance of diplomatic service remain mute for the sake of personal ties based on extortion. Lucky them, they have succeeded momentarily confusing the international community including the UN Security Council, but their sinister designs has no chance to recreate the TPLF/EPRDF unbridled hegemony.            

A Hopeless Military Gamble!

Indeed, war is a political venture by other means i. e. militarily, but when the politics is deranged, so shall be the military drive. That had been the case in Germany of the 1940s, Viet-Nam in the 1960s, Somalia in the 1960s, and Ethiopia in the 1970s. Sadly though, TPLF leaders and their associates do not look back to learn from history. Thus, they have miserably failed from their inception when they contemplated to come back and rule the people by whom they were rejected overwhelmingly. No matter what, without the consent of the people of Tigary in whose name war is waged, there is no doubt that the war is already bound to collapse.

To make matters worse, after their ejection from the Ethiopian power-politics in 2018, the treacherous TPLF leaders reinvented their secessionist political agenda contrary to the edict of Emperor Yohannes IV (1872-1889) that still reverberates: “Dear children of Ethiopia, this country called Ethiopia is 1st your mother, 2nd your wife, 3rd your daughter, 4th your crown, 5th your burial tower of silence; … so follow me to wipe out the invaders”. Deceitful of this standing message, the narcissist dream of the TPLF band is to break-away Tigray from Ethiopia where they aspire to preside as masters of unbridled power and unlimited privileges they lost in the rest of Ethiopia. This gamble aims at recreating the defunct supremacy at least in Tigray, if not in the entire Ethiopia.

This egocentric pursuit again infuriated the entire Ethiopian populace which is still haunted by the last 27 years ordeal. As the TPLF warlords that deploy child-soldiers when advancing towards central Ethiopia viewed as their military success, they are increasingly surrounded by hostile people who want to avenge for past infliction. The further they advance the massive the engulfment ought to be, where eventually retreat would be impossible and annihilation becomes inevitable. The beginning of this scenario has already unraveled in the battle fields where military operations are ongoing. At this point in time, it should be clear that, the US or any major power for that matter, cannot rescue the moribund TPLF from total disarray. Galloping a dying horse would not take any one anywhere but only bite the dust.       

What’s Next on TPLF’s War in Ethiopia?

Since PM Abiy announced and joined to lead the war on November 23 against the TPLF,  the war  is turning in favor of Ethiopia and no doubt against the TPLF .  The TPLF’s loss in the last couple of weeks has been the biggest since the ENDF push back began.
The TPLF war began shortly after June 28 when a unilateral cease-fire  by the Ethiopian government was declared . Rather than do the same, the TPLF refused to take the opportunity to reciprocate by declaring a cease fire and giving peace a chance. It continued its onslaught with a promise to dismember the nation.

The TPLF’s foray into the Amhara and Afar regions and the pillage and mayhem that it created capturing several cities and towns in these regions seriously hurt the nation in blood and treasure.
The  internal displacement of millions in the conflict regions not withstanding, the TPLF declared it was poised to March and enter Addis Ababa and dislodge PM Abiy’s elected government. Today, that seems unlikely and the TPLF has began what it calls a “strategic”  retreat from its march towards Addis, the Amhara and Afar fronts.


The latest developments in the war began with the ENDF , special forces and militia freeing the Chiffra and Bati fronts in the east (Afar) sealing the TPLF’s attempts to capture and choke the  Djibouti rail and road line. 
Also, the TPLF’s aspiration to break and open a corridor into Sudan has failed and most likely will not happen anytime soon. 

PM Abiy‘s military leadership on the war front has galvanized the nation and increased the moral of Ethiopa’s forces and enabled reversing TPLF’s advance and hastening its retreat. Most of the towns and cities held by the TPLF are now under ENDF forces and in some areas local administrations have been reinstated.

The TPLF forces are now Mekele bound and the war the TPLF started after June 28, 2021 is slowly losing steam strangling its ambition and dangerous gambit.

PM Abiy Indicated that the war is practically over and his description of what is left now sounded more like moping operations in these regions.

 In a recent appeal to Tigrean mothers, PM Abiy implored them to question the TPLF on the whereabouts of their children and why they are dying in vain in a needless confrontation led by the TPLF leaders.

Furthermore, Ethiopians are now asking what’s next? If the current pace of the war leads to an end and  the terrorist chieftains in the TPLF surrender and give themselves  up to the Ethiopian law-enforcement authorities peacefully , then the nation will be spared from a long drawn out and unnecessary bloodshed in Tigray.

Some considerations of what should come next in Tigray are : 

1) instituting a sizable command post to temporarily govern the Tigray Killil until it is secure and the safety of the Tigrean people is assured . The command post should direct the disarming of  all the war combatants, criminals and suspects.

2) Similar search and seizures of arms and munitions in Mekele and suspected areas should be conducted…(like the one conducted in Addis Ababa) to insure security

3) a respite period should be declared to enhance a moratorium on all hostilities allowing the Tigray people to decide on who their new regional leaders should be.

4) The Federal government should, through the National Election Board, conduct a regional election in Tigray like it has done in all the other Killils in Ethiopia in due time.

5) The Federal government should provide assistance to the Tigrean people in their move toward a peaceful governance and ensure safety, stability and development of the Killil.



 

Prof. Ephraim’s zoom meeting on the war in Ethiopia: A Response

Prof. Ephraim’s zoom meeting on the war in Ethiopia: A Response

By Addissu Admas November 26, 2021

I want to begin this response by thanking Mr. Jeff Pearce, a true friend of Ethiopia, by providing us with a very rare YouTube video. By posting the zoom meeting of Prof. Ephraim and friends, a motley group of western diplomats and active members of the TPLF regime, he provided us with a unique opportunity to see how American Foreign policy is shaped behind closed doors.

The apparent objective of the meeting among these “old friends” was to interview former ambassador to the U.S., one time Foreign Minister of Ethiopia and current chief envoy of the TPLF, Ato Berhane Gebre-Christos to “update” them on the current state of affairs in Ethiopia. However, the true purpose of the meeting was how to influence, or more precisely, to encourage America to pursue the very policy she has already adopted towards Ethiopia. Prof. Ephraim’s group could not have chosen a more experienced, suave and convincing member of the TPLF, which, unfortunately is only known for its “rough edges”. For these very qualities, Ato Berhane could prove extremely effective in the corridors of the US and EU state departments where form always trumps substance, an American weakness.

Ato Berhane, rather than offering lachrymose pleas, provided well-reasoned and cogent explanations and arguments to his receptive group. What better way to be most effective! However, on nearly every point, he was, to be charitable, way off the mark. He claimed that the difference between the TPLF and PM Abiy’s government is of ideological and political nature: the former fighting for the maintenance and consolidation of federalism, the latter reverting Ethiopia to a unitarian centralizing form of government. In this latter case, the objective would be to simply increase the PM Abiy’s power to the detriment of the federal system of government. In this process, PM Abiy chose to coopt the Amharas because they were the ethnicity most receptive to his call. Why, he does not say; but I presume he is implying that Amharas love imperial form of government; or is most convenient to them. Let us grant that his statement remains to be clarified! The only proof he provided a propos was the coup the PM conducted in the Somali region (Killil) and his presumed attempt to do the same in Tigray. When this latter happened, it is not clear.

This argument, compelling to the unknowing, does not hold water at all. First of all the difference between the government of PM Abiy and the TPLF is not of ideological nature. It is not even of political nature, unless we understand this in a very broad sense. The fact is that two more zones (Sidama and Keffa) have become regional states (Killils) with the same privileges and obligations of all the other Killils. Thus, the process of federalism continues unabated. It is nonsense to claim that one party is gunning for a unitarian state, and the other one to maintain federalism. As far as political differences, I see only the Herculean struggle that the TPLF is fielding to recapture the enormous power it wielded for nearly three decades. Apart from this, there is precious little else to talk of “political differences”.

I say that this most destructive and dishearteningly tragic war started primarily to shield the TPLF elite from any prosecution for the enormous corruption, abuses of power, political persecutions, imprisonment and even assassinations it committed over its three decades long tenure. Secondly, it was to protect the vast privileges and advantages enjoyed not only by the TPLF elite, but also by their families, relatives, friends, and, by extension, the Tigrean people as a whole. Ironically, with the probable exception of Meles Zenawi, the chief ideologue of the TPLF, and for 21 years prime minister of Ethiopia, none of the TPLF cadre understood that, in so diverse a nation as Ethiopia, no one particular ethnicity can wield forever all the top spots of every major sector of administration, the military, diplomacy, with unrestrained access to finance and commercial ventures. After all, the days of Mighty Sparta are dead and gone!

A constant refrain I heard from Ato Berhane, is his rather cavalier use of the word “genocide”. We must be careful using this ominous and dangerous word. Genocide means the elimination of a “genos”, i.e., ethnic group. Reports of the UN and other human rights group have come out and none of them has declared that anything resembling genocide has occurred. An attempt at genocide was actually made by TPLF goons in Mai Kadra. A few of whom were flown recently to Israel with members of the Beta Israel. Beside this, what would Ato Berhane call the devastation that the TDF (Tigray Defense Force) is wrecking in Amhara and Afar? How about the rapes of uncounted number of women, destruction of farmlands, hospitals, and schools in the hinterland perpetrated by the invading TDF? What one can see is a savage war between ethnicities that have shared the same space for millennia, much of it in peace. This is a tragedy that needs decades, if not more, to heal.

Ato Berhane did not say it out loud, but clearly implied that Tigray enjoys a most exceptional and resilient people because it is not only defending itself, but even “winning” against four nations and the Amhara regional state. However, if Ato Berhane were truthful, the “sad state of affairs” in Ethiopia was brought about almost entirely by the TPLF’s own doing, or omissions. The fact is Ethiopia’s military is fairing incredibly better than one has the right to expect. Indeed, the TPLF ensured, that after the demise and complete demobilization of the Derg’s military, Ethiopia would have only what amounted to an armed wing of the TPLF.  There has never been an attempt to rebuild a veritable national defense force with an officer class recruited from Ethiopia’s most diverse ethnicities, as during the Imperial and Derg regimes. Why then disparage the EDF when its most experienced officers and generals “returned” back to Tigray to attack Ethiopia?

Conversely, Ato Berhane tried to impress upon us that the TDF was formed in less than “2 or 3 months”. I say no it was not! It was there all along waiting for 30 years for the clarion to sound. If the EDF has been decimated, as he claims, then the TPLF should take the blame! The TPLF was never indeed about “nation building” but about “dividing and ruling”. 

Ato Berhane claimed that the “majority of the people of Amhara and Oromia” are supportive of the TPLF! In response to this assertion, I let recent events, both inside and outside Ethiopia, provide the response! In no time since the end of the imperial era, have Ethiopians come together to express their opposition in such large number and with such dedication in opposition to what the TPLF is doing. That the TPLF is enjoying any form of support outside Tigray and Tigrean diaspora is only his wishful thinking.

What Ato Berhane is asking quite bluntly is the effective removal of a duly elected prime minister and government by “external pressure” to establish in its stead “an all-inclusive government”. If memory serves me, there has never been a truly inclusive one during TPLF’s long tenure. Apart from the absurdity of the demand, it seems to disrespect the intelligence of the Ethiopian people. Do you really think that the TPLF will be welcome back to Ethiopia after all the destruction, spiritual and material, it has wrought on Ethiopia?

How Ato Berhane presented his case was of one auditioning for the TPLF to take over Ethiopia and that the only think he needed, was American and European help to achieve this goal. Those present in the discussion, most of them veteran diplomats, were more than disposed to influence their friends and contacts active in their respective administrations to redouble, I presume, their efforts to help his beleaguered party. There was no indication or desire that the other side, the majority of Ethiopians, deserved a hearing in their court. Ato Berhane’s demands, reasonable to all uninformed individuals, were paragons of absurdity to any reasonable and informed diplomat. Yet the “old friends” continued to assent and implied to follow up on them.  

While the TDF is wreaking havoc all over Amhara and Afar, to lift restrictions over Tigray sounds like the TPLF has never crossed its borders to impose its will. Yet, it claims to be less than 200 Km from Addis Ababa! How much have the restrictions hurt Tigray if the TPLF is able to field tens of thousands of its citizens all over North Ethiopia? If the TPLF has no desire to take over Ethiopia, why so much carnage? How do you plan to hold accountable the other party while you yourself are still under the suspicion of attempted “ethnic cleansing” in Mai Kadra, besides countless other charges? Since you have laid down on the table all your “plans”, you have given every Ethiopian incentive to see them fail.

Ato Berhane wanted to describe PM Abiy as Ato Isaias’ stooge. Whatever the prime minister has done so far is only to promote the good of all Ethiopians. If Ato Isaias is part of his strategy, why disparage him? The TPLF had benefitted immensely from its association with his regime on its march to capturing Ethiopia’s seat of power. Its association would have most likely continued to this day if it were not for the “unpardonable” blunder of Bademe! We Ethiopians encourage and support the PM and his government to seek help wherever they can find it. Even, as your other spokesperson would put it, to the gates of Hell.